Most A-levels predictions are wrong

Shifting to a post-qualifications system would boost the prospects of bright kids from poor homes, a trade union has suggested.

Teachers exaggerate the abilities of three-quarters of university hopefuls, many of whom are rejected when they fall short of their predicted grades and have to seek a place through clearing, says a report from the University and College Union. Meanwhile the same teachers underestimate the abilities of clever youngsters from poor households, leaving them less likely to aspire to selective institutions.

The report by Gill Wyness of the Institute of Education, University College London, published on 8 December, looked at the results of 1.3 million school leavers over the three years to 2015. It found that just 16 per cent of students achieved their predicted grades. Some 75 per cent gained results that were worse than predicted and 9 per cent did better than forecast.