Place your bets

Bookmakers reckon that Labour will win the next general election. Its leader has promised a “radical offer” on student finance that may yet leave vice-chancellors out of pocket, writes Martin McQuillan.

Any vice-chancellor wondering what to do with his or her most recent double-digit pay rise this Grand National weekend could try a flutter on the outcome of the next general election. Bookmakers are noted for seldom losing money and, in the opinion of both William Hill and Paddy Power, the most likely outcome of the May 2015 election is a Labour majority. The bookies are currently offering that result at 6/4 on, followed by a Conservative majority at 11/4 as the next most likely outcome. The odds on a Conservative majority have come in recently, pushing the possibility of a Labour-Liberal Democrat coalition out to 4/1 with Paddy Power and 7/2 with William Hill. The Irish bookmaker offers 7/1 on a Labour minority, 8/1 on a Conservative minority and 4/1 on a repeat of the Conservative-Lib Dem coupling. William Hill offers 5/1 on a Labour minority or any other result.

One of the skills of any successful vice-chancellor is the ability to back winners. It is curious then that Universities UK, their representative body, has set its face against the possibility of a future Labour government replacing the present student finance regime with a graduate tax. In March Nicola Dandridge, its chief executive, said that the current Labour policy proposal to lower fees to £6,000 would not “be helpful from the universities’ point of view” and that the organisation she leads is “not supportive of a graduate tax as a long-term solution”. Universities UK is often criticised for not being seen to stand up to government; however, it appears to have the confidence to oppose the proposed policies of, according to the bookmakers, the most likely future government.