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Scientists criticise delay in implementing second lockdown

Image: heardiniondon, via Shutterstock

But university leaders welcome news that the sector is to remain open

UK scientists have welcomed the government’s announcement of a second national lockdown but say the measures should have been announced weeks ago.

Under the new restrictions, set to come into force on 5 November, people will be urged to stay at home, except for specific reasons, with pubs, bars, restaurants and non-essential retail set to close for four weeks across England.

Unlike the first lockdown in March, universities, schools and nurseries will remain open, which, while widely welcomed, is likely to pose further challenges.

While deeming the new measures necessary to prevent an exponential rise in cases, some scientists have criticised the government’s failure to act sooner.

The Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies called for a lockdown back in September.

“These measures should have been announced several weeks ago,” said Michael Head, a senior research fellow in global health at the University of Southampton. “However, even at this stage, these newly announced measures should help to provide some level of control over community transmission.”

He urged the government to use the “breathing space” during the lockdown period to fix the contact-tracing system.

“Control of this should be passed over to local health protection teams, ensuring that more contacts of cases are reached, which will help to keep cases at a lower level and minimise the spread of new outbreaks,” he suggested.

Trish Greenhalgh, a professor of primary healthcare services at the University of Oxford, added: “Lockdown came too late. Let’s make sure it’s not also too little.”

In addition to restriction of movements, she called for additional action, such as improving the physical and social environment in workplaces, schools and universities—for example, by increasing ventilation and spacing people out as much as possible.

Meanwhile, in a statement, the president of the Academy of Medical Sciences, Robert Lechler, said: “A national lockdown will buy us some time to get back on track and bring the R number down. It will not be a complete fix, but it is a crucial way for us to regain control, regroup and develop further interventions.”

Most scientists suspected all along that the country was in for a tough winter.

“Almost every scientist from as early as March has warned that the winter was going to very difficult,” said James Naismith, director of the Rosalind Franklin Institute and a professor at the University of Oxford. “New medicines, high throughput tests and the vaccine are on their way, but we have to get through this winter first.”

He says the UK’s track and trace system “has failed” and that there is “no evidence” local lockdowns worked as hoped, but that “we know from April that a lockdown works to reduce the spread of the virus”.

Igor Rudan, joint director of the Centre for Global Health at the University of Edinburgh, worries about the long-term effects of lockdown.

“It is difficult to predict whether the risk of economic meltdown or even social unrest may eventually lead to greater damage than the public health crisis,” he said. “We cannot say with certainty when we may get effective vaccines or medicines distributed broadly.”

Universities and the HE sector

While universities are allowed to stay open during the lockdown, they are encouraged to “consider moving to increased levels of online learning where possible”.

Diana Beech, chief executive of the London Higher group of institutions and a former adviser to three universities ministers, told Research Professional News HE Playbook service it was “welcome news that this time around universities are being positively encouraged by government to remain open and provide vital services for their students, which is not just about ensuring the right blend of in-person and remote teaching but also providing wellbeing support and appropriate study spaces”.

Speaking in a personal capacity, Higher Education Policy Institute director Nick Hillman agreed that letting universities remain open was “the right decision”.

The “careful continuation of the situation since term began, with even more rebalancing towards online provision where necessary”, should “provide the best balance between ensuring the work of universities can continue without putting either students or staff in harm’s way”, Hillman said.

But Andrew Westwood, professor of government practice and vice-dean for social responsibility at the University of Manchester, said there are two “massive issues for higher education and government”.

The first is that 2 December—the date the lockdown is due to end—is roughly the time that the Department for Education is set to be asking students to self-isolate in order to ensure they can get home for Christmas. “That means lots of students—especially those on non-laboratory or non-contact courses—will know they’re going to get no face-to-face [tuition] this semester,” Westwood says. “I suspect some will be planning to get home before lockdown starts as a result.”

The second issue is what this means for the post-Christmas return to campus. “I can’t see us coming out of lockdown on 2 December if we’re going to count R rate and hospitalisation as key data, and as soon as you push into January you are right back into the ‘great migration’” as students return to their place of study, Westwood said.

Part of this story is an extract from our daily 8am Playbook briefing, available to subscribers as a premium service. For more information email sales@ researchresearch.com