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Researchers ‘reassured’ by findings from Covid pilot events

Image: wonker [CC BY 2.0] via Flickr

Results from first phase of Events Research Programme show low case numbers

Scientists behind the government’s Events Research Programme, which analysed the impact of large-scale events on Covid-19 transmission, have described their findings as “reassuring” after a series of pilot events resulted in “no major or uncontrolled outbreaks”.

The ERP project’s results draw on nine pilot events held in the UK between 17 April and 15 May, including the Brit Awards, the FA Cup Final and the World Snooker Championships. Some 58,000 people took part, each required to prove a negative lateral flow test in order to gain entry to each venue.

All attendees were also asked to take a voluntary PCR test, before and after the event, to aid the programme’s research—but the researchers said low uptake of this testing meant it was “challenging to generate robust, generalisable evidence” of direct transmission at events.

The report of the programme, published on 25 June, confirmed that 28 cases of Covid-19 were recorded during the ERP events. Of these, 11 cases were identified as “potentially infectious” at an event, and a further 17 were identified as potentially infected at or around the time of an event.

Asked in a press briefing whether the results offered reassurance, Iain Buchan executive dean at the Institute of Population Health and chair of public health and clinical informatics at the University of Liverpool, said that they did.

“It was reassuring that our public health services can put that kind of outbreak prevention and control in place when the partnerships are tight with the event organisers,” he said.

Football final to further study

A second phase of pilot events has completed, which included matches at the delayed 2020 European football championships, the Download music festival, and the England versus New Zealand cricket fixture. Research into the events is still being gathered and analysed by the ERP team.

Meanwhile, the UK is set to host the final of the delayed Euro 2020 football tournament at Wembley stadium in London with 60,000 fans permitted to attend as part of further piloting—more than the entire cohort of the first ERP study.

Speaking on Wednesday 23 June, Lawrence Young, virologist and professor of molecular oncology at the University of Warwick, said the decision to allow so many fans was “all a bit worrying and confusing”—and that there would be “inevitable opportunities for the virus to spread in enclosed spaces like lavatories”.

Lateral flow controversy

Jon Deeks, professor of biostatistics at the University of Birmingham—also speaking on 23 June—said the use of a negative result from a lateral flow test to allow entry to an event was “contrary to the MHRA exceptional use authorisation for its use”.

“The government are authorising themselves to use the test for this purpose at Wembley by labelling the Euro 2020 final as a research study,” he added. “Whilst it is reasonable to undertake research studies…many such ‘pilots’ have now been undertaken and the data must now exist to evaluate whether it is a reasonable purpose for it to be put.”

Research Professional News asked Tom Rodden, chief scientific adviser at the Department for Digital, Culture, Media and Sport—which published today’s report—whether the scientific case for hosting the event as planned was now stronger or weaker.

“What we’ve demonstrated here is that…we can identify risk, and we can balance those risks,” Rodden said. “That has fed into the decisions around…increasing capacities at all of our events.”

‘No simple answer’ to event safety

He added that the ERP was taking a “staged approach” to increasing the number of people attending events, and that a “broad set of risk mitigation measures [and] public health measures” that had been drawn upon to inform that decision.

Buchan added that it was important to state that there was “no simple answer to say events are safe”.

“We are able to measure the data coming out of a large number of people who were studied in the Events Research Program, and the context of that particular time,” he added.