Foreseeable future

Polling suggests what could happen in university seats, while sector bodies look beyond the election

There have been three multilevel regression and post-stratification polls published this week. They all tell a consistent story—the Conservatives are in a lot of trouble—but to different degrees of severity.

The three polls all predict a Labour government (if the election were held today), but More in Common puts the Conservatives on 180 seats, YouGov on 140 and Electoral Calculus on 66. MRP methodology has obtained something of a mythical status following its use in uncannily accurate exit polls on election night by University of Strathclyde election expert John Curtice—so why do these polls vary so significantly?