Image: US Department of State, via Flickr
Country needs a ‘clear and consistent voice’ in high-level discussions about life after Covid-19
Australia is likely to be in a weaker position in global politics following the Covid-19 pandemic, chiefly as a result of deteriorating relations between the United States and China, a leading foreign policy analyst has said.
Allan Gyngell, public policy professor at the Australian National University in Canberra and a former Washington diplomat, says the health crisis has irrevocably changed global economies and politics.
“The world before coronavirus is not returning. An economic and social shock of this scale is not a freeze-frame moment,” he writes in an editorial for East Asia Forum, an online policy and current affairs blog published by the ANU.
“The balance of global power, the structure of the international and national economies, the role of multilateral agencies, patterns of social interaction and ways of work will all be different.”
Gyngell says the pandemic has revealed “incapacity and divisiveness” among governments across the world.
“Australia’s ally, the United States, looks irrevocably weakened as a global leader, although a lot will hang on the results of the November presidential election,” he writes.
“It is hard to think of a global crisis over the past 50 years to which Washington has offered the international community so little response.”
Gyngell was a senior foreign policy adviser to former prime minister Paul Keating. From 2009 to 2013 he was director-general of the Office of National Assessments, a federal intelligence agency within the Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet.
He says that Australia must find “its own clear and consistent voice” in high-level discussions with the US and China, “or risk being crippled in its recovery” from the global pandemic.
“The pattern of China’s growth, the structure of its economy and Australia’s role in it will change. The economic relationship will remain vital for both countries, but due to Chinese demand falling and Australian desire to diversify, the high point of easy integration might have passed. We will have to work harder.”
Gyngell also warns that Australia’s diplomatic links within the Asia-Pacific region will face increased pressure.
“In addition to the health dangers, the coming financial shock wave will challenge the main pillars of Australia’s Indo-Pacific strategy, especially Indonesia and India,” he says.
“The lessons of this pandemic must be learned quickly. A national and international review that includes ways of sharing information and keeping equipment and pharmaceuticals flowing is critical. Australia should play a large part in its development.”