Update 19 April: The latest version of the forecasts can be found here
With tuition-fee declarations from 30 universities now in, Research Fortnight is forecasting average headline tuition fees of £8,600 in England in 2012.
After taking tuition-fee waivers into account, we are forecasting average charged fees of £8,200 – thats £700, or about 10 per cent, more than the government has budgeted for.
Twice as much data and an improved methodology that takes account of how many undergraduates there are at each institution make this fourth iteration of the forecasts much more reliable than earlier forecasts.
Key points as of today:
* The average level of advertised fees will be £8,600.
* The “top” is deep – almost half of all universities will charge the full £9,000.
* The “bottom” is small – only a few universities will charge less than £8,000.
* The “middle” is squeezed into a narrow band between £8,000 and £9,000.
* After allowing for tuition fee waivers at 4 per cent of the total, our estimate of the average actual level of fees to be charged is £8,200 (as opposed to the governments expectation of £7,500).
In other words, for all the new data, the main conclusions today are almost the same as they were a week ago. The additional data has tended to depress the average a little, but the revised methodology (which gives more weight to institutions with large numbers of students) has tended to bump it up a little and the two have balanced out.
Caveats
1. We dont know how accurately the announcements that have been made will reflect the actual prices charged by universities. There are suspicions that some of these prices will be “sticker” prices that will then be discounted to entice students in. It is harder for it to work the other way with prices going up if demand exceeds supply – but companies have been known to do it and universities could, like airlines laying on extra flights, announce “new” courses late on with higher fees. We dont know what demand will be like because we simply dont know how students are going to respond to the new regime.
2. We dont know how big a factor tuition fee waivers will be. The Office for Fair Access has advised against spending lots on bursaries (slightly different because with a bursary the student ends up with more living money and a bigger loan, and the government with higher lending). So waivers to improve access may be rare. But waivers may be used simply to discount prices discreetly if universities struggle to fill places. We have allowed 4 per cent for waivers, but on little evidence.
3. It can be argued that those universities planning to charge higher-than-comparator fees have an incentive to announce early. Or it can be argued the other way round. In short, there may be a real difference between those universities that announce early and those that announce late. This is especially true in the middle range between Aston and Leeds Met where we have little data.
Consequences
The consequences if this forecast is borne out remain severe, for the level of fees it suggests are significantly higher than the government intended.
For students, it means bigger debts. And for the government, that may mean increased resentment from students and parents.
For the Treasury, it means the threat of higher lending for student loans and an increase in the national debt.
For the Department of Business Innovation and Skills, it means warnings against “clustering at the top end” have been ignored and increased pressure to dictate student numbers or switch to some kind of Plan B policy.
For universities, it means lingering uncertainty as to how the backdraught of government annoyance will convert into policy.
Forecasts
| University | RF QI | Set | Forecast |
| London School of Economics | 60.3 | 9000 | |
| University of Cambridge | 60.3 | 9000 | 9000 |
| University of Oxford | 59.8 | 9000 | 9000 |
| Imperial College London | 58.2 | 9000 | 9000 |
| University College London | 55.8 | 9000 | 9000 |
| University of Manchester | 54.4 | 9000 | 9000 |
| University of Warwick | 53.4 | 9000 | 9000 |
| University of York | 53.0 | 9000 | |
| University of Essex | 52.9 | 9000 | 9000 |
| University of Durham | 51.2 | 9000 | 9000 |
| Queen Mary, University of London | 51.2 | 9000 | |
| University of Bristol | 50.8 | 9000 | |
| University of Sheffield | 50.7 | 9000 | |
| Lancaster University | 50.7 | 9000 | 9000 |
| University of Southampton | 50.6 | 9000 | |
| University of Leeds | 50.4 | 9000 | 9000 |
| University of Bath | 50.4 | 9000 | 9000 |
| Kings College | 50.3 | 9000 | |
| Royal Holloway, London | 49.9 | 9000 | |
| University of Nottingham | 49.5 | 9000 | |
| Goldsmiths College | 48.5 | 9000 | |
| University of Birmingham | 48.3 | 9000 | 9000 |
| Loughborough University | 48.2 | 9000 | 9000 |
| School of Oriental & African Stud. | 48.1 | 9000 | |
| Birkbeck College | 47.9 | 9000 | |
| University of Exeter | 47.8 | 9000 | 9000 |
| University of Kent | 47.6 | 9000 | 9000 |
| University of Newcastle | 47.6 | 9000 | |
| University of Sussex | 47.6 | 9000 | |
| University of the Arts London | 47.3 | 9000 | |
| University of East Anglia | 46.6 | 9000 | |
| University of Surrey | 46.5 | 9000 | 9000 |
| University of Liverpool | 45.2 | 9000 | 9000 |
| University of Reading | 44.9 | 9000 | 9000 |
| City University | 44.4 | 9000 | |
| Royal Veterinary College | 44.4 | 9000 | |
| University of Leicester* | 42.3 |
9000 |
9000 |
| Aston University | 42.1 | 9000 | 9000 |
| University of Brighton | 41.6 | 9000 | |
| Keele University | 41.3 | 9000 | |
| University of Hertfordshire | 41.1 | 9000 | |
| University of Salford | 40.4 | 8500 | |
| Birmingham City University | 40.2 | 8500 | |
| University of Hull | 39.7 | 8500 | |
| University of Bradford | 39.3 | 8500 | |
| Brunel University | 39.1 | 8500 | |
| De Montfort University | 39.1 | 8500 | |
| St Georges, University of London | 37.8 | 8500 | |
| University of East London | 37.1 | 8500 | |
| University of Westminster | 36.9 | 8500 | |
| University of Portsmouth | 36.7 | 8500 | 8500 |
| London South Bank University | 36.6 | 8450 | 8500 |
| Bournemouth University | 35.8 | 8500 | |
| Oxford Brookes University | 35.6 | 8500 | |
| Roehampton University | 35.2 | 8500 | |
| University of the West of England | 34.8 | 8500 | |
| Nottingham Trent University | 34.8 | 8500 | |
| Middlesex University | 34.7 | 8500 | |
| University of Plymouth | 34.6 | 8500 | |
| Liverpool John Moores University | 34.2 | 9000 | 8500 |
| Manchester Metropolitan | 34.1 | 8500 | |
| University of Northumbria | 34.1 | 8500 | |
| University of Huddersfield | 32.8 | 8500 | |
| Sheffield Hallam University | 32.5 | 8500 | |
| Anglia Ruskin University | 32.4 | 8500 | |
| Leeds Metropolitan University | 32.4 | 8500 | 8500 |
| University of Bedfordshire | 31.6 | 8000 | |
| Kingston University | 31.3 | 8000 | |
| University of Wolverhampton | 31.0 | 8000 | |
| University of Derby | 29.8 | 7395 | 8000 |
| University of Teesside | 29.8 | 8000 | |
| University of Central Lancashire | 29.7 | 9000 | 8000 |
| University for the Creative Arts | 29.4 | 8000 | |
| University of Lincoln | 28.9 | 8000 | |
| University of Greenwich | 28.2 | 8000 | |
| University of Sunderland | 27.6 | 8000 | |
| Bath Spa University | 27.3 | 8000 | |
| Harper Adams UC | 27.2 | 8000 | |
| Coventry University | 27.0 | 8000 | 8000 |
| London Metropolitan University | 26.8 | 6500 | 8000 |
| St Marys UC (Twickenham) | 26.3 | 8000 | 8000 |
| Canterbury Christ Church | 25.8 | 8000 | |
| University of Bolton | 24.8 | 8000 | |
| University of Chester | 23.7 | 7500 | |
| Thames Valley University | 23.5 | 7500 | |
| University of Gloucestershire | 23.5 | 7500 | |
| Buckinghamshire New University | 23.4 | 7500 | |
| University of Northampton | 22.8 | 7500 | |
| Staffordshire University | 22.4 | 7500 | |
| Southampton Solent University | 20.1 | 7500 | |
| Liverpool Hope University | 18.7 | 7500 | |
| Bishop Grosseteste UC | 14.5 | 7500 | 7000 |
| University of Cumbria | 14.2 | 7000 |
For a general description of the method used, see our original forecast. In short, institutions are ranked by RF QI – the Research Fortnight Quality Index which is based on the last Research Assessment Exercise. We then forecast the fees in the lower reaches of the table by anticipating a correlation between RF QI and fees and looking at the fees announced by other institutions. To generate the average fee levels, the forecasts are weighted by the number of undergraduates at each institution.
Previous iterations of this analysis has been cited by the Daily Mirror, Daily Telegraph, Independent, PA and BBC.
Leicester will announce fees of £9,000 later today.