Update 19 April: The latest version of the forecasts can be found here.
On tuition fees, the general picture in England is clear. Top universities will charge the full £9,000. Less prestigious universities will charge less. But where does the “top” end, how low will the bottom go and whats going to happen in the middle?
These are crucial questions for potential students trying to decide whether uni is worth it, universities trying to balance their books and ministers worrying about paying for all those (much bigger) student loans. And the data points weve got from the universities that have announced their fees start to provide answers to these questions.
An enlightening picture emerges from some modelling weve done with data from Research Benchmarks to look at the likely level of fees universities will charge.
The biggest factor in the level of fees a university can support is prestige. In this, universities are little different from brands such as car makers. Mercedes Benz can charge more for cars than Toyota because of its reputation in the marketplace.
Where universities differ from car makers is in what they have to do to maintain their prestige. Mercedes need to make cars that actually are better than Toyotas – otherwise its brand value decays. But top universities dont obviously have to provide better teaching. Their prestige lies elsewhere, mainly in research. Thats the thing that most strongly influences the impression of employers, and hence the value of a degree in the jobs market.
In research, every department in the country is judged periodically in the Research Assessment Exercise. On the basis of the 2008 RAE therefore we can score every university on the quality of its research, providing a good proxy for its prestige in the market.
At Research Fortnight we have done this with the Research Fortnight Quality Index and the league table below shows the universities with significant undergraduates ranked in terms of their RF QI.
Glancing at the table, you can see immediately that it is not perfect. Few would rank the LSE (good as it is) above Oxford or Cambridge in terms of prestige.
On the other hand, the ratings do correspond quite closely to the kind of informal ranking we all keep in our head. Oxbridge is at the top. Then other Russell Group places and some of the smaller 1994 Group ones. The former polytechnics are mainly in the lower reaches.
So in terms of getting a picture of whats likely in the sector overall, the RF QI is quite a good starting point. And if we put in the data points from the six universities that have declared, then we can start to see what is going on.
At the top, it looks like the £9,000 club is going to extend quite a long way down. Exeter and Surrey are 26 and 32 in our table. That is a third of the way to the bottom.
At the bottom, the thing to note is how close to the very bottom is the one place that has committed to low fees, London Met. It is ranked 82 out of 95. The other place that has promised to go low, Liverpool Hope, is ranked even lower at third from bottom. This suggests that London Mets fees – which it promises will be between £6k and £7k – are close to the floor of what universities will charge.
Now we can get a first approximation of what to expect from other universities in the next month or so by assuming that their tuition fee level will on average reflect their position in the RF QI table. In that case, looking at the table below, we can draw the following conclusions:
* No university will go below £6,000
* The average level of fees will be £8,000 (as opposed to the governments expectation of £7,500)
* The “top” is deep – a third of universities will charge the full £9,000
* The “middle” is expensive – two thirds of universities will charge £7,500 or more.
* The “bottom” is small – only a third of universities will charge £6,000 – £7,000.
Well, its a crude model based on a small number of data points. The caveats are too numerous to mention. But its as good a picture as were going to get with what we know today.
The consequences if this forecast is borne out will be severe, for the level of fees it suggests are significantly higher than the government intended.
For students, it means bigger debts. And for the government, that may mean increased resentment from students and parents.
For the Treasury, it means the threat of higher lending for student loans and an increase in the national debt.
For the Department of Business Innovation and Skills, it means warnings against “clustering at the top end” have been ignored and increased pressure to dictate student numbers.
For universities, it means lingering uncertainty as to how the government will respond.
I will update this model as more universities declare their level of fees.
Updated with Manchester and Warwick, 23 March (though no forecasts change).
| University | RF QI | Set | Forecast |
| London School of Economics | 60.3 | 9000 | |
| University of Cambridge | 60.3 | 9000 | 9000 |
| University of Oxford | 59.8 | 9000 | 9000 |
| Imperial College London | 58.2 | 9000 | |
| University College London | 55.8 | 9000 | |
| University of Manchester | 54.4 | 9000 | 9000 |
| University of Warwick | 53.4 | 9000 | 9000 |
| University of York | 53.0 | 9000 | |
| University of Essex | 52.9 | 9000 | 9000 |
| University of Durham | 51.2 | 9000 | 9000 |
| Queen Mary, University of London | 51.2 | 9000 | |
| University of Bristol | 50.8 | 9000 | |
| University of Sheffield | 50.7 | 9000 | |
| Lancaster University | 50.7 | 9000 | |
| University of Southampton | 50.6 | 9000 | |
| University of Leeds | 50.4 | 9000 | |
| University of Bath | 50.4 | 9000 | |
| Kings College | 50.3 | 9000 | |
| Royal Holloway, University of London | 49.9 | 9000 | |
| University of Nottingham | 49.5 | 9000 | |
| Goldsmiths College | 48.5 | 9000 | |
| University of Birmingham | 48.3 | 9000 | |
| Loughborough University | 48.2 | 9000 | |
| School of Oriental and African Studies | 48.1 | 9000 | |
| Birkbeck College | 47.9 | 9000 | |
| University of Exeter | 47.8 | 9000 | 9000 |
| University of Kent | 47.6 | 9000 | |
| University of Newcastle | 47.6 | 9000 | |
| University of Sussex | 47.6 | 9000 | |
| University of the Arts London | 47.3 | 9000 | |
| University of East Anglia | 46.6 | 9000 | |
| University of Surrey | 46.5 | 9000 | 9000 |
| University of Liverpool | 45.2 | 9000 | |
| University of Reading | 44.9 | 9000 | |
| Open University | 44.6 | 9000 | |
| City University | 44.4 | 9000 | |
| Royal Veterinary College | 44.4 | 9000 | |
| Cranfield University | 43.7 | 8500 | |
| University of Leicester | 42.3 | 8500 | |
| Aston University | 42.1 | 8500 | |
| University of Brighton | 41.6 | 8500 | |
| Keele University | 41.3 | 8500 | |
| University of Hertfordshire | 41.1 | 8500 | |
| University of Salford | 40.4 | 8500 | |
| Birmingham City University | 40.2 | 8500 | |
| University of Hull | 39.7 | 8500 | |
| University of Bradford | 39.3 | 8500 | |
| Brunel University | 39.1 | 8000 | |
| De Montfort University | 39.1 | 8000 | |
| St Georges, University of London | 37.8 | 8000 | |
| University of East London | 37.1 | 8000 | |
| University of Westminster | 36.9 | 8000 | |
| University of Portsmouth | 36.7 | 8000 | |
| London South Bank University | 36.6 | 8000 | |
| Bournemouth University | 35.8 | 8000 | |
| Oxford Brookes University | 35.6 | 8000 | |
| Roehampton University | 35.2 | 8000 | |
| University of the West of England | 34.8 | 7500 | |
| Nottingham Trent University | 34.8 | 7500 | |
| Middlesex University | 34.7 | 7500 | |
| University of Plymouth | 34.6 | 7500 | |
| Liverpool John Moores University | 34.2 | 7500 | |
| Manchester Metropolitan University | 34.1 | 7500 | |
| University of Northumbria | 34.1 | 7500 | |
| University of Huddersfield | 32.8 | 7500 | |
| Sheffield Hallam University | 32.5 | 7500 | |
| Anglia Ruskin University | 32.4 | 7500 | |
| Leeds Metropolitan University | 32.4 | 7000 | |
| University of Bedfordshire | 31.6 | 7000 | |
| Kingston University | 31.3 | 7000 | |
| University of Wolverhampton | 31.0 | 7000 | |
| University of Derby | 29.8 | 7000 | |
| University of Teesside | 29.8 | 7000 | |
| University of Central Lancashire | 29.7 | 7000 | |
| University for the Creative Arts | 29.4 | 7000 | |
| University of Lincoln | 28.9 | 7000 | |
| University of Greenwich | 28.2 | 7000 | |
| University of Sunderland | 27.6 | 6500 | |
| Bath Spa University | 27.3 | 6500 | |
| Harper Adams University College | 27.2 | 6500 | |
| Coventry University | 27.0 | 6500 | |
| London Metropolitan University | 26.8 | 6500 | 6500 |
| Canterbury Christ Church University | 25.8 | 6500 | |
| University of Bolton | 24.8 | 6500 | |
| University of Chester | 23.7 | 6500 | |
| Thames Valley University | 23.5 | 6500 | |
| University of Gloucestershire | 23.5 | 6500 | |
| Buckinghamshire New University | 23.4 | 6000 | |
| University of Northampton | 22.8 | 6000 | |
| Staffordshire University | 22.4 | 6000 | |
| Southampton Solent University | 20.1 | 6000 | |
| Liverpool Hope University | 18.7 | 6000 | |
| University of Cumbria | 14.2 | 6000 | |