Update 19 April: The latest version of the forecasts can be found here.
The two latest universities to declare their tuition fees increase the evidence that even low-ranked institutions will charge high fees. As a result of the decisions made by Leeds Metropolitan and St Marys in Twickenham, the average level of tuition fees for full-time students we are forecasting for England has risen by £300 to £8600.
St Marys has declared at £8,000 and Leeds Met at £8,500. Those decisions suggest very few places will charge under £8,000. And they make London Metropolitans announcement that it “expects” the average level of fees there to pan out at between £6,000 and £7,000 look like either an outlier or spin.
Third iteration forecast
This analysis has now been cited by the Daily Mirror, Daily Telegraph, Independent, PA and BBC
For latest updates scroll down for notes at the bottom of this page.
Here is the third iteration of our forecast of fees for the whole of England, based now on 16 announcements. Remember – this is a crude exercise still based on small amounts of data in the bottom half of the table and there remain too many caveats to mention.
For a general description of the method used, see our original forecast. But in short, institutions are ranked by RF QI – the Research Fortnight Quality Index which is based on the last Research Assessment Exercise. We then forecast the fees in the lower reaches of the table by anticipating a correlation between RF QI and fees and looking at the fees announced by other institutions.
Key points as of today:
* The average level of fees will be £8,600 (as opposed to the governments expectation of £7,500)
* The “top” is deep – almost half of all universities will charge the full £9,000
* The “bottom” is very small – only a few universities will charge less than £8,000.
* The “middle” is squeezed into a narrow band between £8,000 and £9,000.
* After allowing for tuition fee waivers, our guesstimate of the average actual level of fees charged rises to £8,250.
The consequences if this forecast is borne out will be severe, for the level of fees it suggests are significantly higher than the government intended.
For students, it means bigger debts. And for the government, that may mean increased resentment from students and parents.
For the Treasury, it means the threat of higher lending for student loans and an increase in the national debt.
For the Department of Business Innovation and Skills, it means warnings against “clustering at the top end” have been ignored and increased pressure to dictate student numbers.
For universities, it means lingering uncertainty as to how the government will respond.
| University | RF QI | Set | Forecast |
| London School of Economics | 60.3 | 9000 | |
| University of Cambridge | 60.3 | 9000 | 9000 |
| University of Oxford | 59.8 | 9000 | 9000 |
| Imperial College London | 58.2 | 9000 | |
| University College London | 55.8 | 9000 | 9000 |
| University of Manchester | 54.4 | 9000 | 9000 |
| University of Warwick | 53.4 | 9000 | 9000 |
| University of York | 53.0 | 9000 | |
| University of Essex | 52.9 | 9000 | 9000 |
| University of Durham | 51.2 | 9000 | 9000 |
| Queen Mary, University of London | 51.2 | 9000 | |
| University of Bristol | 50.8 | 9000 | |
| University of Sheffield | 50.7 | 9000 | |
| Lancaster University | 50.7 | 9000 | 9000 |
| University of Southampton | 50.6 | 9000 | |
| University of Leeds | 50.4 | 9000 | 9000 |
| University of Bath | 50.4 | 9000 | 9000 |
| Kings College | 50.3 | 9000 | |
| Royal Holloway, London | 49.9 | 9000 | |
| University of Nottingham | 49.5 | 9000 | |
| Goldsmiths College | 48.5 | 9000 | |
| University of Birmingham | 48.3 | 9000 | 9000 |
| Loughborough University | 48.2 | 9000 | 9000 |
| School of Oriental & African Stud. | 48.1 | 9000 | |
| Birkbeck College | 47.9 | 9000 | |
| University of Exeter | 47.8 | 9000 | 9000 |
| University of Kent | 47.6 | 9000 | 9000 |
| University of Newcastle | 47.6 | 9000 | |
| University of Sussex | 47.6 | 9000 | 9000 |
| University of the Arts London | 47.3 | 9000 | |
| University of East Anglia | 46.6 | 9000 | |
| University of Surrey | 46.5 | 9000 | 9000 |
| University of Liverpool | 45.2 | 9000 | 9000 |
| University of Reading | 44.9 | 9000 | 9000 |
| Open University | 44.6 | 9000 | |
| City University | 44.4 | 9000 | |
| Royal Veterinary College | 44.4 | 9000 | |
| Cranfield University | 43.7 | 9000 | |
| University of Leicester | 42.3 | 9000 | |
| Aston University | 42.1 | 9000 | 9000 |
| University of Brighton | 41.6 | 9000 | |
| Keele University | 41.3 | 9000 | |
| University of Hertfordshire | 41.1 | 9000 | |
| University of Salford | 40.4 | 9000 | |
| Birmingham City University | 40.2 | 9000 | |
| University of Hull | 39.7 | 8500 | |
| University of Bradford | 39.3 | 8500 | |
| Brunel University | 39.1 | 8500 | |
| De Montfort University | 39.1 | 8500 | |
| St Georges, University of London | 37.8 | 8500 | |
| University of East London | 37.1 | 8500 | |
| University of Westminster | 36.9 | 8500 | |
| University of Portsmouth | 36.7 | 8500 | |
| London South Bank University | 36.6 | 8500 | |
| Bournemouth University | 35.8 | 8500 | |
| Oxford Brookes University | 35.6 | 8500 | |
| Roehampton University | 35.2 | 8500 | |
| University of the West of England | 34.8 | 8500 | |
| Nottingham Trent University | 34.8 | 8500 | |
| Middlesex University | 34.7 | 8500 | |
| University of Plymouth | 34.6 | 8500 | |
| Liverpool John Moores University | 34.2 | 9000 | 8500 |
| Manchester Metropolitan | 34.1 | 8500 | |
| University of Northumbria | 34.1 | 8500 | |
| University of Huddersfield | 32.8 | 8500 | |
| Sheffield Hallam University | 32.5 | 8000 | |
| Anglia Ruskin University | 32.4 | 8000 | |
| Leeds Metropolitan University | 32.4 | 8500 | 8000 |
| University of Bedfordshire | 31.6 | 8000 | |
| Kingston University | 31.3 | 8000 | |
| University of Wolverhampton | 31.0 | 8000 | |
| University of Derby | 29.8 | 8000 | |
| University of Teesside | 29.8 | 8000 | |
| University of Central Lancashire | 29.7 | 8000 | |
| University for the Creative Arts | 29.4 | 8000 | |
| University of Lincoln | 28.9 | 8000 | |
| University of Greenwich | 28.2 | 8000 | |
| University of Sunderland | 27.6 | 8000 | |
| Bath Spa University | 27.3 | 8000 | |
| Harper Adams UC | 27.2 | 8000 | |
| Coventry University | 27.0 | 8000 | 8000 |
| London Metropolitan University | 26.8 | 6500 | 8000 |
| St Marys UC (Twickenham) | 26.3 | 8000 | 8000 |
| Canterbury Christ Church | 25.8 | 8000 | |
| University of Bolton | 24.8 | 7500 | |
| University of Chester | 23.7 | 7500 | |
| Thames Valley University | 23.5 | 7500 | |
| University of Gloucestershire | 23.5 | 7500 | |
| Buckinghamshire New University | 23.4 | 7500 | |
| University of Northampton | 22.8 | 7500 | |
| Staffordshire University | 22.4 | 7500 | |
| Southampton Solent University | 20.1 | 7500 | |
| Liverpool Hope University | 18.7 | 7500 | |
| Bishop Grosseteste UC | 14.5 | 7500 | 7000 |
| University of Cumbria | 14.2 | 7000 |
Updated at 15:35 with Reading at £9k. No change to forecasts.
Updated at 18:45 with Coventry at an estimated £8k. The university is reported as saying it will charge between £7.5k and £9k for full-time courses, with £7.5k for classroom subjects and £9k for high-demand courses requiring studio or lab time. So it seems likely that a preponderance of classroom subjects will keep the average below the midpoint of the two values. As we were forecasting £8k for Coventry anyway, the additional data point makes no material difference to the forecasts.
Updated 10:15 29 March with Liverpool at 9k. No change to forecasts. Also, I got an email from the Times. They have done a confidential survey of institutions and concluded the average will be £8,700, which is close to our £8,600. The story is in Mondays paper, behind the paywall. And Ive been tipped off about a new university thats on the verge of going to £9k, which would be the first post-1992 to light on the maximum, and would push up the forecasts a bit. More follows once weve been able to stand it up…
Updated 15:05 29 March with Sussex at £9k. No change to forecasts.
Updated 17:45 29 March with Liverpool John Moores at £9k. This will tend to bump up the forecasts above what is shown here – even more so if other places above it in the rankings follow suit.
Updated 4 April with Leeds, Bath, Kent and Loughborough at £9k. No change to forecasts.