Image: Nasa
Independent panel warns continent risks being devoured by competitors unless it dramatically changes its approach
Nothing less than a “revolution” is needed in how Europe approaches human and robotic space exploration, an independent panel has warned.
With the US and China having “started a new global space race”, the space industry having advanced in leaps and bounds, particularly in the US, and European access to space via Russia having been uncoupled by the Ukraine invasion, Europe risks its space exploration ambitions being “forever dictated by others” unless it acts “now”, the panel argued.
“In the past 30 years, Europe decided not to invest in leadership and autonomy in human space exploration,” a report by the panel published on 23 March says. “The cost and consequences of such dependencies have now been brought into sharp focus.”
The report’s 12 authors—all but one of whom were not experts in space—concluded that “the adage, ‘If you are not sitting at the table, you are on the menu’ risks becoming a harsh reality”. The authors included former Nato secretary general Anders Fogh Rasmussen, influential economist Mariana Mazzucato, explorer Erling Kagge and comic book artist François Schuiten.
Spend more
The panel was commissioned by the European Space Agency to provide its member states with “an independent and objective high-level assessment regarding the (geo)political, economic and societal relevance of human and robotic space exploration for Europe and recommended options for a way forward”.
It concluded: “Europe should embark on a revolutionary endeavour which equally encompasses grand geopolitical, economic and societal benefits.”
Global space activities are already undergoing a revolution akin to the development of the internet, the panel found, with their economic value potentially trebling between now and 2040.
Any countries that do not secure independent access to space during this period will become “strategically dependent and economically deprived”, it warned.
At present, Europe spends one-fifteenth the amount that US space agency Nasa does on space exploration, according to the panel. Its report therefore called on the continent to “significantly increase” this level of public investment.
Reform procurement
At the same time, Europe needs to adopt a new procurement model for large-scale infrastructure, to make it more commercially oriented, the panel argued, adding that the public sector should set mission requirements and companies should propose the most effective solutions.
Presenting the report to the press, panel member Cédric O, a former digital secretary of state for France, said he would “not put a euro” of his own money to use on space procurement using the European model as it stands, whose efficiency he described as “very poor”.
But if Europe transforms its approach, he added, then “even if you speak about a few billion euros, the transformation effect can be huge”.
“If there is a huge revolution [in space exploration], and let’s assume that the Americans and Chinese are betting on that revolution, then it’s going to be a huge problem if Europe is not part of that,” O said.
“We’ve already been set aside in terms of artificial intelligence, in terms of a lot of technology…and we don’t want to be out of that revolution…The cost of not going into space, and not investing more into space, might be higher than the cost of doing that.”
In response, Esa director general Josef Aschbacher insisted that “the money spent in Esa is really well spent, because we have done enormous projects and huge achievements…but where I fully agree is…if Europe engages in this space revolution, then we have to change completely how we procure [from] and interact with industry”.
Aschbacher also revealed that Esa is “reflecting” on “an evolution” of its use of the principle of ‘georeturn’ or ‘fair return’, whereby the share of contracts it awards to companies or other organisations in one of its member states must fall within a certain percentage of that country’s contribution to the Esa budget.
Promote values
Another panel member, former Italy research minister Stefania Giannini, emphasised the importance of a recommendation that Europe must try to shape global space activity in accordance with its values.
“Europe should engage in a bold and daring exploration programme to reinvigorate European values and project European leadership beyond space,” the report says. “Investing in leadership and autonomy can catalyse a wider societal mobilisation, gearing Europe’s society towards a can-do attitude and unlocking optimism for the future.”
Without such an effort, Giannini warned, there is a risk of space becoming a “Wild West” among competing powers.
A version of this article appeared in Research Europe