Flood risk assessment ‘should factor in chance of surprises’

Paper says risk managers should anticipate “wildcards” and draw on varied fields of study

Risk assessments for floods should take into account the potential for situations to take responders by surprise, a research synthesis paper has suggested. The paper comes a month after devastating floods in Belgium and Germany killed about 200 people despite multiple warnings from the European Flood Awareness System.

River floods caused about 7 million deaths in the 20th century, authors led by Bruno Merz of the University of Potsdam in Germany wrote in a paper published on 10 August in the journal Nature Reviews Earth and Environment. Better knowledge on whether an area is ‘surprise-prone’ during floods is needed, they said.