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Scientists fear rise in deaths as UK isolation restrictions relaxed

           

New rules mean double-jabbed adults and under-18s will no longer be required to self-isolate

Scientists have criticised the UK government for dropping the requirement to self-isolate for double-jabbed adults and children, warning that it will lead to increased numbers of coronavirus deaths and hospitalisations.

From 16 August, people in England and Northern Ireland who have received two doses of a Covid-19 vaccine or are under the age of 18 will no longer be legally required to self-isolate if they have come into close contact with someone with coronavirus. This follows similar changes already implemented in Scotland and Wales.

Instead of self-isolating, they are being advised to get a free PCR (polymerase chain reaction) test as soon as possible. They will also be encouraged to take other precautions, such as wearing a face covering in enclosed spaces and limiting contact with other people.

The changes follow concerns over the high number of people receiving notifications from the NHS Covid-19 app telling them they must self-isolate for up to 10 days after coming into contact with someone who has the virus.

But a number of scientists have raised serious concerns about the relaxation of isolation measures, which they say are premature given the high number of cases and threat of infectious variants, such as Delta.

‘More deaths and hospitalisations’

“This change comes at [a] time when daily case numbers remain high and there is increasing evidence that double-vaccinated individuals can still get infected with the Delta variant and spread infection to others,” said Lawrence Young, professor of molecular oncology at Warwick Medical School.

“It is very likely that this change will fuel increased levels of infection and that this will lead to further hospitalisations and deaths.”

He added that additional precautions, such as wearing facemasks and limiting contact with others were “extremely unlikely to happen”.

“While accepting that the disruption caused by the ‘pingdemic’ is not sustainable, it is important to recognise that the virus is still circulating in the population and that the more infectious delta variant has changed the equation.”

Stephen Griffin, an associate professor in the School of Medicine at the University of Leeds, agreed, adding that the policy “might be sensible in the scenario where we have achieved high vaccine coverage within the entire population, but, critically, in the context of a low level of circulating infection”.

“However, we are not in this place, currently, and the Delta variant has changed the terms of the game. Sadly, government policy hasn’t adjusted to adapt to the new pandemic.”

Meanwhile, Peter English, a retired consultant in communicable disease control and a former chair of the British Medical Association’s Public Health Medicine Committee, pointed out that people who are fully vaccinated who are infected with coronavirus “may be just as infectious as people who were not vaccinated—just less likely to realise they are infectious”.

“I fear that the UK government is reducing these requirements before there is sufficient certainty of how effective vaccination will be at reducing transmission, knowing that vaccination alone is unlikely to be sufficiently effective, and this will extend the duration of the pandemic and cause avoidable death and disease,” he said.

English added that the removal of the requirement for under-18s to self-isolate was a “huge gamble”.

“Even if only a small proportion of them suffer long-term or permanent damage, ensuring that nearly all young people are infected—as they will be, given our failure to vaccinate them or to invest in mitigation in schools—will inevitably mean large numbers of them who will be impaired for a long time, or for life.”

‘Closer to normal life’

Announcing the new measures on 11 August, health secretary Sajid Javid said asking the close contacts of people with Covid-19 to self-isolate had played a “critical role” in helping to get the virus under control.

However, he added, “getting two doses of a vaccine has tipped the odds in our favour and allowed us to safely reclaim our lost freedoms”.

“Vaccines are what will bring this pandemic to an end—the wall of defence provided by the roll-out is allowing us to get even closer to normal life.”

The Department of Health and Social Care declined to comment, but said Covid-19 vaccine effectiveness against symptomatic Covid-19 was estimated to be between 78 and 80 per cent after two doses.