New restrictions should come in sooner rather than later, suggests Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies
The government’s Covid-19 scientific advisory group has called for “policy work on the potential reintroduction of measures” to be undertaken immediately so new rules can be “ready for rapid deployment”.
The recommendations come from the recently released minutes of the 14 October meeting of the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies attended by 76 people. They follow wider concerns over rising numbers of infections and fears that hospitalisations and deaths may also rise as Covid-19 immunity wanes.
The UK recorded more than 50,000 new Covid cases on 21 October, alongside 115 deaths within 28 days of a positive test. One in 60 people is estimated to have had Covid in the week to 16 October, which is the equivalent of 1.1 million people.
While Sage modelling said hospitalisations this winter are unlikely to match the levels seen at the height of the last wave in January 2021, it notes there are “uncertainties around behaviour change and waning immunity”.
It also said that co-circulation of Covid and flu will make for “significant challenge this winter”.
Call for ‘earlier intervention’
If Covid restrictions are to be reintroduced, Sage said, they should be “supported by clear communication; consistent implementation that avoids creating barriers to adherence; and clear triggers for deployment”.
It also said the measures should be introduced quickly as “earlier intervention would reduce the need for more stringent, disruptive, and longer-lasting measures.”
Measures discussed include working from home, face masks, vaccine certificates and test-and-trace with isolation of people with positive results.
In the 14 October minutes, Sage also warned against complacency around the risk of new variants emerging, which is “a very real possibility”.
It added: “Ensuring sufficient capacity to monitor for variants, and capability to characterise new variants and conduct predictive vaccinology, is crucial.”
‘Go hard and go early’
Meanwhile, Independent Sage, a self-appointed expert group chaired by Deenan Pillay, professor of virology at University College London, said on 22 October: “We regard the current situation of some 250,000 infections, 5,000 hospitalisations and 700 deaths per week in England is sufficiently serious to warrant immediate action”.
“It is better to ‘go hard and go early’,” the group said, adding that “while vaccines are an essential centrepiece of the Covid strategy they are insufficient on their own to deal with the currently dominant delta variant”.
“We urgently need to implement a ‘vaccine plus’ winter plan to control Covid based on providing protections and support to the public,” Independent Sage said. “The failure to implement sensible and proportionate protections in the short term makes it more likely that we will need greater restrictions in the long term.”