Image: City of Stoke On Trent Sixth Form College [CC BY 2.0], via Flickr
How might predicted grade deflation impact on UK institutions?
With grade deflation predicted across the UK, this year’s A-level results day is likely to be a significant one for universities and student applicants, both of whom are likely to see problematic effects.
England’s exam regulator, Ofqual, has taken steps to ensure results return to pre-pandemic levels after significant grade inflation during Covid, which was caused by the cancellation of formal exams and a reliance on teacher-assessed performance.
This two-year deflation process produced relatively small grade adjustments last year, which will be compounded this year when results come out on Thursday.
England likely to be harder hit
In Wales and Northern Ireland, similar processes are taking place, although they are expected to produce less severe grade restructuring. The Scottish Qualifications Authority has said it took “a ‘sensitive approach’ to awarding for 2023” because “learning and teaching are still in the recovery phase from the pandemic”.
Scottish higher results came out on 8 August, with the pass rate falling from 78.9 per cent last year to 77.1 per cent this year—still above the 74.8 per cent pass rate of 2019.
This could mean that students in England will be harder hit than their peers elsewhere in the UK in terms of the Ucas points that they accumulate.
Missed grades
An analysis by the consultancy DataHE suggests that nearly 60,000 sixth formers with predicted A-level grades of AAB or higher might fail to get the grades they hoped for—around 27,000 more than last year. With many high-tariff institutions requiring at least two A grades for their most selective courses, this could mean a shortage of suitable applicants.
Another analysis, by the Centre for Eduction and Employment Research at the University of Buckingham, concludes that 100,000 fewer A* grades will be awarded this year than during the pandemic peak.
“A drop of this size would be very disappointing for the students and their parents,” the report concludes. “Some will find that they have been cut off from university places that would have been open to them last year.”
Ofqual has said that universities were aware of the approach to grading in 2023, and “took this into account when making offers”.
“And don’t forget, the overall number of university places available is not governed by the number of top grades,” the regulator said.
However, while universities are autonomous in their recruitment of students, reputations can be damaged if entry requirements become too relaxed.
‘Money illusion’
“In theory changes in the grade distribution should not make any difference to getting into university,” the DataHE analysis says. “People are not becoming more or less able; it is just the ruler is being changed.”
In practice though, both universities and applicants “probably find it hard to completely shake off the grade equivalent of the ‘money illusion’, where you focus on the nominal value”, it adds.
“It is particularly hard for universities who must confirm 2023 18-year-olds, without knowing what the national grade distribution is, and against an unusually large number of 19-year-old re-applicants who will have gained their grades from the previous year—and its higher grade distribution.”
Ultimately, there could be more competition in clearing this year as those students who have fallen short of their offer grades try to secure a place somewhere else. Frustratingly for universities, while many of these applicants will have lower grades than last year’s cohort, they may have performed just as well academically. It may be a challenge for universities to judge a student’s potential.
Demand down
This is all happening amid a decline in the number of applicants overall. As we reported in June, early Ucas data show the number of university applicants in 2023 fell year-on-year in all four countries of the UK—which could mitigate some of that competition in clearing.
There have also been reports that universities will try to recruit more international students through clearing this year, partly because these students are far more lucrative than domestic recruits.
However, speaking to a Higher Education Policy Institute webinar on 14 August, Ucas chief executive Clare Marchant said she had seen no significant increase in the number of courses open only to international students in clearing.
On issues relating to applicants failing to get their predicted grades, Marchant said she was “not particularly concerned” given that universities knew about the planned restructuring of grades when offers were made, adding that the “vast majority” will still get into their first-choice institution.
When are A-level results available?
A-level results will be published online and emailed to students on Thursday, 17 August, at 8am. Schools and colleges will receive the results on 16 August to prepare for results day itself.
Research Professional News will be covering the results from 8am tomorrow.