The society’s Covid-19 expert advisory group, Delve, warns against ‘abrupt and premature’ lockdown exit
Targeted policies that are sensitive both to the spread of Covid-19 and the associated economic costs are needed to control the pandemic, an influential group of academics has suggested.
In a report on the economic aspects of the Covid-19 crisis in the UK, a team of UK economists convened by Nick Stern, a member of the Royal Society’s Data Evaluation and Learning for Viral Epidemics steering group and Tim Besley, from the Delve working group, warn against an abrupt and premature lockdown exit.
The warning comes as the government announces further loosening of lockdown restrictions to start on 15 August, including reopening of theatre, music and other performing arts venues.
The Delve academics combined economic and epidemiological data to model scenarios for reopening the economy. They say that a sudden loosening of restrictions would “lead to a second wave of infections that would bring with it both a higher death toll and additional costs for the economy”.
Instead, they suggest a number of non-pharmaceutical policy interventions to stave off a second wave of the virus and the prospect of a double-dip recession.
Their recommendations include workplace and school rotation schemes, better online provision for teaching and examinations, subsidised workplace testing, flexible furloughing, a review of statutory sick pay, better unemployment support, and capitalising on government commitments to achieving net zero carbon emissions by 2050.
“Pitting health and economic outcomes against each other is unhelpful,” said Besley, who is also a professor of economics and political science at LSE and a fellow of the British Academy.
“It is wrong to assume that the only way to get the economy back on its feet is through an excessive loosening of restrictions. Targeted policies that are sensitive both to the spread of the disease and economic costs are needed.”
Data will be vital to developing such policy responses, the academics believe.
“The UK government and supporting bodies should continue pursuing the goal of obtaining more and more representative and fine-grained transactions data from UK financial institutions for the purpose of monitoring the impact of Covid-19 and associated policy interventions,” they said.
“Such data are valuable assets in the current situation, and the UK should be the vanguard in efforts to harness its power for effective and timely policymaking.”