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UK advisers to share Covid-19 modelling after criticisms

Image: Number 10 [CC BY-NC-ND 2.0], via Flickr

Tougher measures to tackle pandemic announced after some scientists criticised slow government response

The UK government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies has agreed to share its data and modelling of Covid-19 following heavy criticism from experts on the speed of government’s response to the pandemic.

The official handling of the coronavirus situation in the UK took heavy criticism with some experts calling it a “ragbag with no particular logic to it” and “lagging behind a lot of countries”.

Amid mounting criticism of the UK’s response—which has not yet taken steps seen in other countries such as shutting schools—some critics called for the data and modelling supporting this position to be made available.

In response the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies said on 14 March it was “examining models of further interventions” and “agreed that in line with good scientific practice the modelling and data considered by SAGE in future will be published”.

“We are dealing with a very fast-moving epidemic with emerging data from many disciplines and many complex decisions,” said SAGE member and government chief scientific adviser Patrick Vallance and his colleague, chief medical officer Chris Whitty in a brief joint statement.

The government officials also said they were preparing a range of tougher measures for the near future, possibly including a ban on large-scale public gathering and self-isolation for the over 70s.

This follows an open letter to the government, published on 14 March and by now signed by more than 400 scientists, which calls for “stronger measures of social distancing across the UK with immediate effect”.

“As scientists living and working in the UK, we would like to express our concern about the course of action announced by the Government on 12 March 2020 regarding the Coronavirus outbreak,” the letter says, referring to the last major update on handling Covid-19.

Signatories said they were concerned that the social distancing measures put in place were insufficient and “additional and more restrictive measures should be taken immediately, as it is already happening in other countries across the world”.

The letter, and the government’s announcement of tougher measures, follow wide-ranging criticism from a variety of experts, even as many others defended government action and highlighted uncertainties in data and in how other countries were handling outbreaks.

John Ashton, former regional director of public health for north-west England described the official response as “a kind of ragbag with no particular logic to it” while Paul Hunter, professor of medicine at the University of East Anglia said he was “expecting there to be something more rigorous” and that “we are being perceived as lagging behind a lot of countries”.

Others praised Vallance and Witty though.

Gail Carson, a consultant in infectious diseases at the University of Oxford, said, “Trust takes time to build and is all too easily broken. The people who are leading this politically and scientifically will be doing their best with little sleep, under stress and in the middle of the fluid situation of Covid-19…any outbreak will show cracks in systems—political, society, health and the economy.

“It is for all of us to bind all of the above together. That does not mean not to speak up if you do not understand or disagree, do but does mean we have to move on—together.”